Forecasting System Prototype Amount Of Printing Raw Material Inventory Needs Using The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (Arima) Method
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Abstract
Manage the amount of raw material inventory which plays an important role for the company. The smoothness of the production process is influenced by the availability of the raw materials used. The company has difficulty determining the need for raw materials. The company experiences excess and shortage of raw materials, resulting in losses and failures to meet consumer needs. To overcome these problems, it is necessary to forecast the need for raw materials in order to minimize the shortage and excess of raw materials and make the best use of raw materials. The method used in this study is the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. The results of this study indicate that the ARIMA model (0,1,1) can be used to predict the amount of demand for raw materials in the appropriate category. This is supported by the test results. The error value with the MSE method is 45,689.58 and the MAPE value is 19.52%.
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